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Monday, October 5, 2009

Still not the Country of the Future - A Short Comment

In our Sept 17 article entitled  Emerging Market Folly we had this quote-

"Brazil is the country of the future. And it will always be the country of the future."

Over the past few weeks there have been several stories about Brazil's current economic growth. Even Lulu, its president, was saying "There's no recession here". Perhaps this was merely a lot of hype to have the 2016 Olympics staged in that country.But whether hope or hype, it looks like everyone is starting to believe this fairy tale.

The latest eulogy  appears to be a story on Bloomberg.com, about 4 hours ago. Basically, it seems certain multinational banks are starting to get excited about Brazil as an investment. Partly this may be based on a "central bank" survey of one hundred economists, who think Brazil will grow 4.5% next year. Below is the link to the full article -


Now Guido finds all this enthusiasm very interesting. Considering that the actual people living in Brazil have a different opinion. Of course, we know Brazil always had problems, such as drugs, slums, and organized gangs that would make even Los Angeles look like The Golden City. But apparently, according to residents in Rio de Janeiro < where the 2016 Olympics will be staged >, things have gotten much worse than they were compared to even a year ago.

Briefly stated, these actual residents of Brazil, mostly business people, say the economy and society is falling apart. Corruption is worse than it has ever been. To have anything done, anything at all, a person better be ready to pay bribes, kickbacks, etc. Citizens of Japanese descent < going back several generations > are advising their acquaintances in Japan not to visit the country ; the reason being literally that they'd probably get half their money taken away in scams by government officials and tourist employees at the airport. One popular shake down evidently goes something like this -

 "Ah you're Japanese and you look like a foreigner < good guess considering they just arrived from Japan >. You look like a suspicious terrorist. Maybe we'll have to detain you in one of our jails that are rated the worst in the world. How much money have you got, terrorist? Ah that much huh. Tell you what, we'll make it a fine . A little secret between us two. Just pay us this much and go enjoy  Copacabana, provided some street gang doesn't shoot you on your way over there. Ciao."

Guido tried to get other specifics and details about how and why the economy and society were now disintegrating. But all he kept being told was "everything". "The whole society and economy is completely collapsing. Everything is collapsing." Maybe I should have just asked them if there was any good news. It might have been easier.

Brazil has fantastic natural resources, not the least of which is it's population. Too bad it can't be used to everyone's advantage.

"Every blessing ignored becomes a curse." - Pualo Coelho








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